Today's Conundrum

Gold fell 1% last night - as usual, I was too late onto the move - finally mustered up the courage to go short at $666.70 (gold forward). For awhile, thing seemed to be going well, then she recovered- currently trading @ 667.

I think I'm going to sit this one out. The Yen is under pressure, and oil should lose some steam now that the Iran/UK sailor thing is in the UN. In a way, if the Iranians had nabbed American marines, we would be preparing for WW3 now. Its probably some overzealous Iranian Navy captain who started this - and now Iran has to back its own soldiers rather than give any ground even if they are in the wrong. In my mind: UN = not WW3 (yet) - so I still think Gold can go down to $655 (Spot) and $660 (Forward), assuming that the USD remains strong for a bit.

On to my position in TLS.

I entered the position thinking a double-top had formed, judging on the action in the morning. I was proved wrong in the afternoon. So I see no point in continuing with this position and should exit.

If I didn't have this position, I'd take the chart to be bullish (MACD uptrend, rising volume, has broken a resistance level), and would be thinking of buying today. So do I flip my position?