Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Developing my Trading Rules

To put my theory of trading the range in OXR to the test, I shorted @ 305 yesterday - it was 10:13 AM, the stock was up 5 cents from Friday's close. Guess what - WRONG CALL! The market drifted back to 304, before moving inexorably onwards to close at 307. Today - low of 305 (at the open), high of 313.

So - the exception to the rule was the one time when I decided to put my money on the line! I don't know whether to laugh or pound my head against a very solid rock.

ILU, meanwhile, gave me a shock as well - I have a price target of 571 - but she closed up at 590! Today, she's the only trade that's actually in the green, currently at 577.

The XJO is going bananas today. Down 50 pts, then up 50, then down 50 again - and its just 12.41 pm! Getting a bit dizzy.

Apart from my profit on ILU, I'm down $480 (MTM basis @ 12:45 PM). Here's what I think I should do with the positions:
ILU: let it run to 571
OXR: close it as near as 307 as I can.
AWB: I see support at 343, so it should do something positive from there.
BHP: get out quickly
AMP: reset target to take profits @ 1100 - which was touched earlier today.
AGK: it closed @ 1610 yesterday. have had faith that this stock will recover so that at the least I can break even on the trade.

Further, all of yesterday, I've been thinking about some rules that I need to follow to make this work. This is what I've come up with:
1. Always trade the trend from the trend-line. Whenever I've done that, I've made a profit (eg. ZFX, SMY, VBA trades earlier).
2. Look for complete positive signals from charts. Essentially, avoid doing an AGK or BHP again - where the stochastics were obviously bearish.
3. Do not trade on a whim. Avoid trying to catch a falling knife (like my long AWB @ 360 and short OXR @ 305 positions now)
4. Be patient, not greedy. I'm not going to put more than 2% of my capital at risk. Currently, that works out to $80. This would mean smaller positions and profits - but so be it.
5. Be thankful for my opportunities. I don't mean this is a religious way, but really - thankful to Mr. Market for putting opportunities of profit in front of me.

Now, to see if I can stick with these.

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