GLOBAL
- USD to remain weak
- Low global inflation
- Money is cheap
- Slowdown in US, but pick-up in EU + developing economies
- Oil prices to remain historically high
- Re-alignment of global economic forces in progress - gold to be a dominant standard again
- More international takeovers - especially in Africa of minerals
- Strong economy
- Higher interest rates
- Moderate inflation - under control
- More emphasis on infrastructure
- Australia to sign N-agreement with India
- Forward/Futures market in Uranium to come into existence
- Australia to sign Kyoto Protocol - or increase funding for green technology
- More takeovers in Australia - good year for investment bankers
- Bad year for banks and insurance - drought, bushfires, economic slowdown
- Fall in AUD - to reflect fall in resources prices, good year for grain exports, bad year for mining cos. (except Gold)
Global:
- Re-emergence of growth in the Japanese economy + easing back (i.e. not a complete 'unwind') of the Yen carry-trade due to a stronger Yen + possible interest rate rises.
- Money is still cheap - plenty of petro-dollars about, plus HUGE amounts of the USD lying about in China and Japan.
- Strong dollar: due to weakness in USD but combined with demand for resources from strong China - earlier I had believed that the Chinese economy would slow down in tandem with the US economy - I now believe that the growth in the Chinese domestic economy is an even bigger animal about to be unleashed on the world.
- Weaker profits for Aussie based miners (due to strong A$), except where offset by rising international prices of the underlying commodity (eg. Uranium, rare earths, molybdenum (?))
- Good year for banks, insurance and mutual funds - more capital inflows into the Aussie market
- At least 1 more interest rate hike this year
- Property market - to remain at insane levels. The higher it goes, the harder it will fall.
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